Europe on the Brink of War!
The Russia-Ukrainian Crisis
While the Middle East has constantly been a poker chip for major world powers to play their wild gambles, now the hand has been dealt on Ukraine, where the finest militaries in the world are now preparing to play full house on the European nation — warfare style.
Severe political and military tensions have been rising rapidly in the past few months which has reached a culminating point that will tip the plate into war. Approximately more than 150,000 Russian troops and a behemoth of military equipment have been deployed near the Ukrainian border, prompting a warning from the United States (US) that ‘an invasion might commence at any time’.
While the US speaks of a physical Russian invasion of Ukraine, America has itself been invading former Soviet nations with ideological and political encroachment where the widespread Americanisation of Europe and Asia has been extremely prevalent during and after the Cold War.
At the same time, Moscow characterised America’s warnings about an oncoming invasion as ‘hysteria’ on Saturday (12). Notwithstanding Moscow’s comments, it appears that the Kremlin is gearing itself for battle by deploying more troops, military equipment, medical personnel, and even blood to the front lines.
As a result, a major military confrontation on European soil could be on the verge of erupting. The open plains of Ukraine could see conflict once again after formerly hosting some of the gruesome battlegrounds of the Second World War. There have been no breakthroughs in diplomatic negotiations between Russia and the United States and their allies, including a phone call between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as a meeting between Russia and French leader Emmanuel Macron.
Ukraine’s future is at stake in this impasse. In addition, Ukraine serves as a bigger stage on which Russia can try to restore its influence in Europe and the rest of the world and for Putin to cement his legacy. Even if Putin decides that the only way to get what he wants is to launch another incursion into Ukraine, this could result in the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, an upheaval in Europe’s refugee population, and a harsh response from the West, including economic sanctions that would affect the entire world.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s resulted in the USSR splitting into 15 independent states. Since then, like a politician securing distant votes, the USA has been recruiting former Soviet powers to join NATO and turn against their former Russian allies. The European Union has also contributed to this by generously providing EU membership to nations of the former Soviet bloc, thus pushing them towards Western ideology and away from the Russian sphere.
In addition to mere political ideology, the West has been planting military equipment in these former Soviet nations. For instance, Poland was one of the significant nations in the Warsaw Pact, NATO’s Eastern counterpart, and was a Soviet republic until 1989. Since then, the USA and Western allies have been making attempts to bring Poland into their sphere of influence, which was successful 10 years later when in 1999, Poland joined NATO and in 2004 Poland joined the EU. Becoming a Western ally in Eastern Europe ensured that the Western political and social aspects were now pushed towards Russia. Besides Western philosophy, the USA began planting weapons, troops and equipment just 700 miles from the Russian capital.
The Western alliance has been pushing its way further into Eastern Europe and towards Russia at a significant pace and a single country is in between face-to-face convergence — Ukraine. Ukraine faces the brunt of political and military tension as NATO is now attempting to bring Ukraine into its alliance, which will enable the West to place extensive amounts of weaponry on Russia’s doorstep — an action that naturally triggers Russian leadership into defence.
In 2014, the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement was signed and Ukraine joined the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU. The Ukrainian presidential election in 2019 elected comedian-turned-president Volodymyr Zelenskyy into power, who is a US-backed politician and who stated in 2021 that Ukraine will apply for EU membership in 2024 and will join the EU in the 2030s. Under Russian pressure, President Zelensky has openly stated his desire to join NATO.
In 2008, NATO leaders, including Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, promised Ukraine and Georgia NATO membership at some point in the future. During that time, leaders in France and Germany warned US President George Bush of antagonising Russia by such a promise of membership. “[Promising membership] was a terrible error”, said Steven Pifer, who served as the Clinton administration’s ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000. Thirteen years later, reality unfolds.
President Joe Biden has now claimed that Ukraine would not join NATO soon. Many current members of the alliance have been against the membership of Ukraine to NATO citing issues in terms of democracy and other political substances. As a result, Ukraine has found itself in an impossible situation — a candidate for an alliance that may not accept it, while provoking a prospective adversary on the other side without any official NATO protection.
If President Biden claims Ukraine would not be given membership to NATO, how and why is NATO pushing itself into Eastern Europe? The answer is a politico-military dilemma in Eastern Europe. On one hand, America is eager to extend its rule next to Russia through Ukraine, but on the other hand, NATO cannot easily accept a former Soviet authoritarian nation without considerable changes to the rule of law, the constitution and the judiciary in Ukraine.
This is the reason why in 2019, the constitution of Ukraine was amended and the strategic direction needed to join the EU and NATO were provided in the preamble to the Basic Law, three articles and transitional provisions. A transformative change in Ukraine’s political sphere is sponsored by the West so that they could easily offer Ukraine a seat at NATO’s table.
If key nations in the Western alliance cannot politically bring Ukraine into NATO immediately, what can they do to still spread influence in Ukraine against Russia? One word — military. Ukraine was placed the fourth-largest receiver of military assistance from the US. Amidst a plethora of funding, training and equipment to Ukraine, the CIA has been operating ‘Ground Branch’, an operation established under the Obama administration, that according to a former CIA official was ‘training an insurgency’ to ‘kill Russians’. The UK has also further stepped in whereby it signed a defence agreement with Ukraine and Poland on the 18th of February, which is increasing the level of tension in the region.
Ukrainians and Russians have a very close cultural connection including traditions, language and social attributes. However, according to President Putin, there is a ‘wall’ that now separates Russians and Ukrainians, and this would not have been the case if Western powers had not interfered.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which escalated in 2014, is still raging. However, recent political developments in Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Russia may explain why Putin feels it is time to intervene.
Western powers have been dealing with an array of various challenges in the recent past from the failed political leadership of the Biden-Harris administration to BREXIT in the UK and to the departure of Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor after a decade-and-a-half term in office. Along with the political environment, the Western military environment has also suffered from the failed US exit in Afghanistan and a minor crisis inside NATO with President Biden favouring Australia over France in the infamous submarine deal.
Gaps in the Western alliance coupled with a failing US military through the example of Afghanistan portrays severe weakness of the West in the eyes of President Putin, thus making this a feasible time to make moves in Eastern Europe. Against this backdrop, the author predicts increased hostility from China against Taiwan in the near future as well.
In the past weeks, almost all diplomatic stances to clear tensions have been made void as the West overtly holds alleged peace talks but are covertly pushing for more military support in Ukraine. The Biden administration talked about a solid and predictable relationship with Russia just a few months after taking office. However, that now appears to be out of the question — just like most of Biden’s other political pledges.
Even as the White House is preparing penalties against Russia, providing money and weapons to Ukraine, and increasing US military presence in Eastern Europe, the administration still claims that they hope for a diplomatic settlement. On the other hand, French President Emmanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for approximately five hours aiming for reduced hostilities.
Disparities in Washington’s efforts to restrain Putin may give him more confidence. It is not clear if Putin’s domestic issues, notably the coronavirus and a weak economy, are enough to convince him that a foreign trip like this one will help him gain popularity at home, as it did in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea.
In terms of recent developments to the conflict, the shelling of a school in Ukraine’s Luhansk region by pro-Russian separatists could be the making of a prelude to an attack, whereby if Ukraine makes a drastic move following the shelling, Russia could use it as a basis for severe retaliation in the form of an invasion. A consultation of recent history would coherently illustrate a similar situation in the Russian war against Georgia in 2008, where a prelude to the Russian attack was triggered through pro-Russian rebels.
On the other hand of the coin, former M16 head Sir John Sawers stated that the Western powers are exaggerating the threat of Russian invasion. At the same time, the Czech president, Miloš Zeman pointed a finger at the US intelligence stating that first, the US lied to the world about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the early 2000s, and then claimed that the Taliban will not take over Afghanistan a few months ago, and are not claiming a Russian invasion. President Zeman throws doubt on the US intelligence and hints at a possible false flag operation by the West.
At the same time, multitudes of Russian troops have been withdrawing to their bases from the Western border after the completion of military drills. Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted “February 15, 2022, will go down in history as the day Western propaganda for war failed. Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot being fired”. Could this mean that Europe will witness a near peaceful future? Or is this a mere Russian fairy tale to ease tensions?
Pro-Russian rebels made announcements on the 18th for civilians to leave the area, which is a clear sign that they are expecting a war. Australian, UK and US embassies have been evacuated and people of multiple nationalities have been requested to immediately leave Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of Western troops have been put on alert in the region and are on standby for deployment. Everyone is expecting a war. Is it real?
If President Putin pulls back troops and deescalates the situation, he will lose face in the political realm as nations would not take his threats seriously anymore and it would break off his bargaining power. At the same time, if he decides to launch an all-out offensive, it could spell doom for the economy, diplomatic relations and overall living standards of both sides of the conflict and the world at large.
The US, UK and the EU are adamant that Russia has decided to launch an invasion and that war is imminent. Ukraine claims that Russia is attempting to provoke the Ukrainian military to attack first. Russia on the other hand is claiming that they have no intention of invading. Who is stating the truth and who is being the falsifier? Only time will tell.
